NOTES OF APRIL 1, 2014 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION WORKSHOP
Final Revision B – Provided by the Rye Civic League
Background
Rye has received a grant from the NH Coastal Program for a series of four workshops entitled “Preparing for Climate Change in Rye, Gaining Insights and Charting a Course”. The initial workshop was held April 1st at the Rye Junior High School, and was attended by approximately 40 citizens and town officials. It was facilitated by UNH, the Rockingham Planning Commission, and Coastal Adaptation Workgroup. The featured speaker was Dr. Cameron Wake of UNH, a leading climatologist. The program included introductory remarks, Dr. Wake’s presentation, a Q&A session, and an interactive small group session where citizens and officials white boarded risks and impacts to Rye in three categories: People, Infrastructure, and Natural Resources.
For a full video recording of the workshop, see: http://vimeo.com/91070740
Use the time stamp references to navigate to areas of interest. It is recommended that one watch the entire approximately one hour long video. The time stamps below correspond to the presentation slides.
Introductory Remarks (1:30 elapsed)
(1:30 elapsed) Introductory remarks included description of the next phase Tides to Storms
(5:00 elapsed) Vulnerability assessment and hazard mitigation strategy discussion using new detailed maps as well as presentation of examples (9:20 elapsed) of what Durham, Newfields, Exeter, and Portsmouth identified as their key areas of concern and the strategies to address. For example, Newfields is planning a generator purchase program.
Dr. Wake’s Presentation (16:00 elapsed)
How the climate has changed and may change in the future on the Seacoast.
(20:30 elapsed) Ice Cores and CO2, Dr. Wake’s area of study. Since 1957 C02 has increased as much as during the last 18,000 years since the last ice age.
(24:20 elapsed) Decadal temperature rises.
(24:40 elapsed) Major recent storms Snowtober Oct 2011, Sandy, etc… we were not prepared.
(26:40 elapsed) Northeast Winter Temp Trends. Over last 40 years 2x warming trend when compared to last 100 years.
(28:00 elapsed) More major precipitation events. More big rain events along with more impervious surfaces.
(26:25 elapsed) Engineers are designing for bigger 100 year storms 6.3” (1957) vs. 8.5” (2008).
(30:44 elapsed) FEMA expenditures over time for NH disasters. Clear increases in event cost and frequency since 2005.
(32:00 elapsed) Sea Level Rise since 1850: Portland, Boston, New York.
(32:50 elapsed) Sea Level Rise Portsmouth Harbor
(33:45 elapsed) Local Studies on Climate Change with references
(34:00 elapsed) How much greenhouse gas will we put in atmosphere is unknown because it is based on our future actions. High and Low Emissions scenarios presented.
(36:00 elapsed) How will temperatures change in New England for both emission scenarios: High Emission, Low Emission? Range of 6.5-12.5F for High 3.6-6.5 F for Low.
(36:55 elapsed) Summer heat index. How much hotter will summers feel compared to summers now in other parts of the country by century end? We will either have Delaware or North Carolina summer.
(37:39 elapsed) How many days over 90 will we see? 40 or so days by century end.
(38:15 elapsed) Precipitation events of over 4” doubling or tripling by end of century
(38:52 elapsed) More drought. No overall summer precipitation increase but hotter so more summer evaporation
(39:49 elapsed) Projected 21st century sea level rise. A summary of most recent studies show 2’-5’ feet of rise by end of century.
(42:30 elapsed) Specific Sea Level Rise Study presented. 1-1.7’ feet by 2050, 2.5-6.3’ by 2100
(43.22 elapsed) Illustration of sea level rise scenarios at a home on the coast at low and high tides.
(44:25 elapsed) Range of 100 year flood elevations for low and high sea level rise scenarios
(45:25 elapsed) Maps of Rye with flood scenarios. Water depth over land.
Q&A for Dr. Wake
(47:40 elapsed) Question on wide atmospheric CO2 emission range between Low and High Emission scenarios (34:00 elapsed). The wild card is what the world does or doesn’t do to reduce emissions.
(51:33 elapsed) Question on ice core samples. How are concentrations of CO2 distributed over the earth as compared to the poles? Are these valid measurements?
(53:40 elapsed) Was there a report just released by UN on climate change? Comment? Description of UN reports and what they are made up of.
(55:15 elapsed) Will average annual precipitation increase? New England average annual precipitation will go up 15-20% over the century. Southwest will dry out. Advantage for New England as we will have water, an increasingly precious commodity. Downside is more water, more flooding in fewer events.
(56:40 elapsed) UN reports that there has been a 15 year pause in climate change (temperature) but emissions are still going up. Can we have faith in the model’s projections when the change did not occur. Can you explain?
